Whose land, whose transition? Spotlighting the hidden territorial footprint of the global energy transition

A new report by the Land Matrix Initiative and the International Land Coalition examines the growing territorial footprint of the global energy transition and the urgent need to better understand its implications for land rights, local communities and ecosystems.

Two fundamental questions of global environmental justice remain largely unanswered: What lands are being targeted to fuel the energy transition? And who is bearing its costs?

As countries accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels, renewable energy development and the extraction of transition minerals are placing growing pressure on land resources. While essential to decarbonisation, these developments risk reproducing extractive practices and inequalities associated with earlier energy systems.

To shed light on these challenges, the report provides a preliminary assessment of the spatial extent of energy transition projects, their overlap with Indigenous Peoples' and local communities' lands, and the potential land rights and environmental risks they pose. It offers an important starting point for ensuring that the transition to a low-carbon economy does not come at the expense of rural communities and vital ecosystems.

The report reveals the considerable scale of land associated with renewable energy and transition mineral projects worldwide:

• A potential footprint of 328 million hectares: Across all stages of development, from early speculative claims and exploratory permits to active construction and operational facilities, registered renewable energy and transition mineral projects potentially affect an area equivalent to the size of India.
• Most projects are still in the pipeline: Intended projects – those in the early stages of exploration and planning – account for approximately 80% of the total mapped energy transition footprint. In 2025, around 230 million people worldwide lived within the footprint of these intended projects, highlighting the scale of potential future exposure.
• Significant overlap with community lands: Approximately 50% of transition mineral concessions (120 million hectares) and 25% of renewable energy projects (40.5 million hectares) overlap with mapped Indigenous Peoples' and local community lands. This points to substantial potential risks for their land rights, livelihoods and resource access.
• Risks to biodiversity and carbon sinks: Prospective projects overlap with approximately 50 million hectares of protected areas and Key Biodiversity Areas. These overlaps could threaten biodiversity and carbon sinks, with the potential for major habitat loss and between 4 and 15+ gigatonnes of CO₂ emissions.

Moving away from fossil fuels remains essential to limiting global warming. However, the transition must not reproduce the extractive practices and disregard for the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities that have characterised previous energy systems.

The findings highlight the urgent need for policymakers, investors and other stakeholders to establish and enforce robust social and environmental safeguards. This includes recognising and protecting existing land rights, ensuring meaningful participation in decision-making, and addressing the potential impacts on local livelihoods and ecosystems.

The energy transition is not only about changing how energy is produced, but also about ensuring that its costs and benefits are distributed fairly. With most projects still at an early stage, there is a critical opportunity to put these principles into practice before land rights and livelihoods are put at risk.

This work was initiated by the Land Matrix Initiative and the International Land Coalition and is the result of a collaborative endeavour involving LandMark, Landesa, the Global Land Programme (GLP), EJAtlas, Collaborating for Resilience (CoRe), and the Business & Human Rights Resource Centre (BHRC). It was further supported by a broad network of partners brought together through the Knowledge Alliance on Land (KAL).