The fruits of horticulture? Commercial farming across local economies in Senegal

Can commercial farming stimulate economic development? Across sub-Saharan Africa, large commercial farms are increasingly promoted as engines of rural transformation. Yet whether they generate gains beyond the farm, and how these vary with local conditions, remains unclear. Co-authored by two of the Land Matrix members, Christoph Kubitza and Mohamadou Dieye, this study constructs a new spatial census tracing the expansion of large commercial farms in Senegal from 1999 to 2023 and combine it with satellite data, a farm survey, and population censuses. Local economic responses differ substantially across the four settings in which farms operate. In two horticultural regions with investments of similar scale and labor demand, census comparisons show increases in the share of women’s employment in agriculture. Near major urban markets, where commercial farms replace smallholder production, farm expansion increases nighttimelight coverage and is associated with higher household wealth and in-migration. In the less densely populated river valley, where farms expand cultivated land, census estimates point to population growth, but the study finds no comparable nighttime-light response and weaker evidence of rising wealth. In the other two settings, we find little evidence of local economic change.

Authors: Christoph Kubitza, Regina Schnars, Renate Hartwig, Céline Zipfe, Mohamadou Dieye
Published: 2026
Source: House of Sustainable Society (HoSS)/Stockholm School of Economics (SSE)